Receivers are dominating the first round of fantasy drafts today but don’t get it twisted, running backs are still extremely valuable. Running back is still a high-risk, high-reward position in fantasy football, and you should still be risking it. If you don’t have an elite back, you’re hoping someone on your team has a breakout game every week, but that’s too risky. So we need to understand where the value lies in the draft for a quality back. Running back tiers are volatile because injuries are commonplace. When one guy gets hurt, it not only elevates the other RBs, but also that player’s backup. Remember that these tiers are a guide designed to give you an idea of where you can grab value and where you may want to let a back pass you by.
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Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey (SF) — McCaffrey is the best fantasy football running back in the game. He’s a dual-threat monster who can catch passes out of the backfield and run for 1,000 yards. He’s a PPR machine, hauling in 85 receptions in 2022. What was more impressive is that he did it for two teams in two different offenses. If he can stay healthy, McCaffrey is a lock for Top 5 fantasy production. He is now in the most dynamic offense in the NFL under the imagination of the best play caller in the business. He has a good chance to return to the 1000/1000 form of 2019, which made him a fantasy god.
Nick Chubb (CLE) — Chubb is a physical, downhill runner who is always good for between 1,200 and 1,400 yards. He is probably the safest running back pick in fantasy. His worst season of the past four was still a 1000-yard, 12-touchdown campaign. This season he will get the bump provided by adding a dynamic quarterback with legit rushing ability like Deshaun Watson. It means defenses can not just zero in on him in the run game because Watson can do major damage with the read option. Chubb has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry for his career — don’t expect that to decrease this year.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) — Austin Ekeler is the PPR king. He’s a pass-catching juggernaut who hauled in 107 receptions in 2022. He’s also a capable runner, rushing for 915 yards last season. Ekeler has been a fantasy mainstay for the past four seasons. Even if he is not a Top 5 back in real life, in the fantasy world, his value is enormous. He has averaged nearly 100 targets over the past four seasons. There is nobody on the roster who seems poised to cut into his targets, and with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore at the controls, it could be his best season ever.
Derrick Henry (TEN) — Henry is the best pure running back in the NFL. He’s a one-man wrecking crew who can single-handedly win games for his team. He breaks tackles and stiff arms defenders into the ground. Henry’s workload could be looked at as a concern, but it’s why he is so valuable in fantasy. He’s averaged over 300 carries per season over the past four years — that’s a lot of wear and tear on his body. He bounced back well from his 2021 injury in 2022 to once again be a Top 5 back. He also set records for targets (41), receptions (33), and receiving yards (398) last season. If Henry stays healthy, he will be near the top in fantasy once again.
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Saquon Barkley (NYG) — Barkley is a generational talent who has the potential to be the best running back in the NFL. He is playing in an offense that takes advantage of matchups, but he is the straw that stirs the drink. As a rusher, his 2022 looked very similar to his 2018 rookie season. Both ended with over 1300 yards and double-digit touchdowns, and 2022 was his highest targeted season since that rookie year. There is still a lot that the Giants can squeeze out of Barkley as a receiver. He’s a Top 5 fantasy running back when he is on the field, especially since the weapons added around him should make it more difficult for defenses to lock in on him.
Tier 2
Jonathan Taylor (IND) — The leading rusher in the NFL in 2021, Taylor should be a lock for Top 5 production again in 2023, but there are issues between him and the organization. That brings into question his availability. On the field,he’s a powerful runner who can break off big plays, and he’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield. With a dynamic quarterback like Anthony Richardson next to him, watch out.
Tony Pollard (DAL) — Pollard has been the RB2 to Ezekiel Elliott, but he’s now the main guy with Elliott’s departure. He’s a good receiver and a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He has top-tier potential, but will he be used to that capacity or will he just garner a few more carries and targets? He is a great Tier 2 pick up with fantasy upside because we don’t really know what his usage will be. Home run hitters like Pollard are great because it only takes one carry to get the numbers dancing!
Josh Jacobs (LV) — Jacobs is an all-around running back who was RB1 in 2022. While it is hard to see him duplicating that production in 2023, he will definitely be a great pickup if he is on the field, but there are contract issues and it cannot be discounted that it may affect his production. He’s an efficient blue-collar running back who can also catch the ball out of the backfield.
Najee Harris (PIT) — Harris is a powerful runner who can break off big plays, and he’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield. His second season was not as productive as his first — RB4 as a rookie; RB14 in Year 2 — but was still quality. His value should be Tier 2 as the Steelers’ weapons improve and less attention can be paid to stopping Harris.
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Joe Mixon (CIN) — Mixon is a talented running back who has been hampered by injuries in recent years. But when he’s healthy, he’s a Top 10 RB. He’s a powerful runner who can break off big plays, and he’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield. The 2021 campaign was his best year on record, netting over 1,500 total yards and 16 TDs. While he was not able to duplicate the rushing numbers in 2022, the receiving marks continued to improve (career-high 60 catches, 441 receiving yards). With injuries at receiver and quarterback, the Bengals could lean on Mixon early this season as they try to get others healthier.
Aaron Jones (GB) — Jones is a dual-threat running back who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He’s a good runner and a great receiver. The touchdown numbers have been down since the 19-touchdown season in 2019. But he has been able to maintain as a rusher and pass receiver which should make him a PPR asset. With a new quarterback, the Packers should lean on Jones more. He should be a Top 12 RB in 2023.
Tier 3
Bijan Robinson (ATL) — A powerful runner with breakaway speed, Robinson is a three-down back who can do it all. He’s a home run threat every time he touches the ball. His value will really be determined by what the snap share will be in the backfield between Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) — A big, bruising runner who’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield. His value could be decreased with the recent addition of Ezekiel Elliott, who could spell him in goal-line situations.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) — A versatile back who can run and catch, Etienne should be a PPR-friendly option in fantasy but the Jaguars completed the eighth-fewest passes to their backfield in 2022 and Etienne’s 35 catches ranked just 22nd among RBs. To make matters worse, Jacksonville drafted bruiser Tank Bigsby, who could take short-yardage work (read: goal line duty) away from Etienne.
Breece Hall (NYJ) — A patient runner with excellent vision, Hall is a good fit for the Jets’ zone-running scheme. Coming off a major knee injury, there are questions about how limited Hall will be early in the season, especially with the recent signing of Dalvin Cook. Ultimately, though, there should be plenty of carries for both.
Ken Walker III (SEA) — A dynamic runner with home run speed, Walker is a threat to break off a big play every time he touches the ball. He’s a slightly risky pick in fantasy, but he has the potential to be a league-winner. The question is what will his usage look like in 2023 after the Seahawks drafted UCLA product Zach Charbonnet.
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Tier 4
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) — The shifty speedster is a perfect fit for the Lions offense and should see plenty of touches in 2023. He is a home run hitter and can be a factor as a ball carrier and as a pass catcher. He will share time but should still get a lot of opportunities.
Miles Sanders (CAR) — Sanders is a talented runner who has been in a running back committee in Philadelphia but broke out in 2022 as the featured back. Sanders moved on to Carolina to continue to command the spotlight and, with a new coaching staff and quarterback, he should put up solid numbers in 2023.
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) — Dobbins is a dynamic runner who is poised for a big season in Baltimore, especially now that he’s two seasons removed from injury and in an offense that defenses will not be able to focus on simply stopping the run. Dobbins could have a career season. At his draft value, he should be a must-have for fantasy managers.
Cam Akers (LAR) — Akers is back to full health and ready to reclaim his starting role in Los Angeles. If he gets near 250 carries this season, he’ll be a 1000-yard rusher and a fantasy factor.
Alexander Mattison (MIN) — Mattison should see an increased workload with Dalvin Cook now gone to New York. He’s already proven that he can be a viable fantasy back when he has filled in for an injured Cook — now it is his show.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) — Pierce is a big, powerful runner who has emerged as the lead back in Houston. His 2022 rookie campaign started with a flame but ended with a flicker. Hopefully he takes another step forward in 2023.
James Conner (ARI) — Conner is a proven commodity who is always a threat to score touchdowns. He’s a solid RB2 in fantasy and will need to get carries as the Cards will lean on the run game with quarterback Kyler Murray recovering from injury.
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Dalvin Cook (NYJ) — Cook is one of the best running backs in the NFL when he is on the field — Minnesota cutting him still makes no sense. The only reason he’s this low is that we don’t know what the backfield split will look like with the Jets. He could provide massive upside compared to where he is being drafted in fantasy.
Tier 5
David Montgomery (DET) — The new man in Detroit, Montgomery is primed for a big season in one of the best offensive attacks in the league. Will he get the goal-line carries that Jamaal Williams enjoyed last season? That will make a big difference in his value to fantasy managers.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) — Pacheco went into 2022 as a backup, but forced himself into a starting role based on his production. He should be the lead back this season, and look for his carries to exceed 200. If so, the tough-running back should have continued success.
Rachaad White (TB) — White is a versatile back who could see a lot of touches in Tampa Bay’s offense. There does not seem to be anyone in his way anymore after being behind Leonard Fournette last season during his rookie campaign. With new quarterbacks in place, he should provide a friendly outlet.
Javonte Williams (DEN) — Williams was trending towards being RB1 after a solid 2021 rookie season, but he only played in four games in 2022 due to a major knee injury. If he is healthy — and preseason reports have been positive — he’ll look to regain his 2021 momentum with a new coaching staff.
James Cook (BUF) — Cook is a pass-catching specialist who could be a valuable asset in PPR leagues now that Buffalo is figuring out that he can be something more than just a change-of-pace back.
Alvin Kamara (NO) — Kamara still has Top 5 fantasy running back skills, but there are a lot of factors that have diminished his value in New Orleans and that includes two players — Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller — who will handle backfield duties while he serves a three-game suspension, and eat at his workload after he returns. But no matter the situation, when Kamara is on, he’s one of the best.
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D’Andre Swift (PHI) — Swift is a PPR machine who should push Philadelphia to throw more to the RB position. There is a role for the shifty home run hitter in Philly, and he should be bolstered by the caliber of offense that he is surrounded by.
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) — Robinson is a big, bruising back who could be a goal-line vulture in Washington. He rushed for 797 yards in 2022 over 9 starts. If he is able to play a full season in his sophomore campaign, he should be a valuable fantasy asset.
Khalil Herbert (CHI) — Herbert should now be the lead back in Chicago with Montgomery gone. If he can maintain his 5.7 yards per rush with an increased number of carries, he is in for a big season, especially paired with Justin Fields in the Chicago backfield.
AJ Dillon (GB) — Dillon has 14 touchdowns (12 rushing) combined over the past two seasons backing up Aaron Jones in the Packers’ backfield. He has provided solid RB3 production in that span and could be a major fantasy factor if ever forced into a lead role.
Rashaad Penny (PHI) — Penny is healthy and ready to compete for the starting job in Philadelphia. There will likely be a committee regardless of who wins the starting job, but Penny has a load of talent.
Antonio Gibson (WAS) — Gibson has PPR potential but he relinquished the RB1 job to Brian Robinson and saw his upside decrease considerably. Can he find a resurgent role in a new offense under Eric Bieniemy?
Jamaal Williams (NO) —Williams is a solid back who will get legit carries early in the season while Kamara is suspended. That said, he probably won’t get all the goal-line rushes that he did in 2022 for Detroit with the presence of Taysom Hill gobbling up carries close to the end zone.
Ezekiel Elliott (NE) — Elliott may not be a Top 10 fantasy running back anymore, but even with his age and declining production, he can still be a goal-line/red-zone bully in New England.
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Tier 6
Charbonnet has a chance to be the thunder to Ken Walker’s lightning in the Seattle backfield, and could also emerge as the passing down back given Walker’s shortcomings in that department.
People needs to forget the negatives about Achane based on height and look at the home run hitting ability and vision. At running back, his lack of size is actually a plus.
Bigsby has had a great camp and is performing really well in the preseason. There should be carries in Jacksonville but there is an abundance of talent at the position.
Tier 7
There’s no reason to write Hubbard off. When he has been given a legit opportunity, he has not been a liability — even on a train wreck squad.
With Jacobs holding out, White may be a valuable early-season play.
Tier 8
Is Davis in line for RB2 duties? If so, he will definitely be worth a stashing. We don’t know how heavy a workload Pollard will handle in a lead role. Davis also needs to deal with Rico Dowdle nipping at his heels.
Can Vaughn be the change-up in an unsettled backfield? While so many are looking at his size (or lack thereof), they are ignoring his impact and home-run-hitting ability.
Tier 9
There is no way you believe the Bucs are just going to give all the carries to one back. There is a chance that Vaughn can make an impression early. If so, he can change the dynamic of that backfield.
Tier 10
If Dowdle beats out Davis as the RB2 in the Cowboys offense, it is safe to assume that he will be infinitely more valuable than where he is being drafted or even where he is on these tiers.
(Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)
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